Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.180700 0.215767 0.257461 0.311162 0.379176 0.463370 5.769286e-01
2025-06-15 0.135165 0.175845 0.229710 0.307822 0.420894 0.583030 8.415782e-01
2025-06-22 0.105244 0.146999 0.207552 0.305017 0.464520 0.728067 1.226934e+00
2025-06-29 0.080601 0.119331 0.179925 0.286648 0.481638 0.849749 1.676579e+00
2025-07-06 0.056118 0.086360 0.136156 0.229496 0.413979 0.798441 1.785605e+00
2025-07-13 0.046374 0.074791 0.124608 0.225594 0.446585 0.972678 2.606751e+00
2025-07-20 0.040063 0.067644 0.119095 0.232062 0.507309 1.266345 4.221049e+00
2025-07-27 0.035409 0.062458 0.116044 0.243417 0.590103 1.711320 7.405256e+00
2025-08-03 0.031189 0.057193 0.111574 0.250674 0.671624 2.270571 1.317435e+01
2025-08-10 0.026884 0.050867 0.103289 0.245851 0.718618 2.796599 2.183045e+01
2025-08-17 0.022970 0.044592 0.093612 0.233991 0.737967 3.266907 3.438100e+01
2025-08-24 0.020508 0.040976 0.089341 0.236350 0.816280 4.248812 6.801438e+01
2025-08-31 0.018274 0.037623 0.085380 0.240153 0.918059 5.791568 1.651856e+02
2025-09-07 0.016491 0.034970 0.082597 0.247347 1.053040 8.263035 5.231252e+02
2025-09-14 0.014914 0.032503 0.079710 0.253504 1.201495 11.914091 2.281909e+03
2025-09-21 0.013157 0.029253 0.073766 0.245506 1.265204 15.255173 1.026553e+04
2025-09-28 0.010739 0.023927 0.060518 0.202410 1.052786 12.980481 1.037898e+04
2025-10-05 0.009765 0.022205 0.057798 0.202760 1.154863 17.887018 1.529195e+05
2025-10-12 0.009106 0.021195 0.057037 0.211692 1.347219 28.223081 5.770330e+11
2025-10-19 0.008588 0.020476 0.057043 0.224761 1.616533 48.916731 NaN
2025-10-26 0.008044 0.019584 0.056253 0.233906 1.886284 83.760150 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007382 0.018242 0.053556 0.231586 2.035245 124.233204 NaN
2025-11-09 0.006702 0.016739 0.049933 0.222233 2.083915 164.991399 NaN